The Ides of August
We have now entered the longest economic expansion in history. Starting in June of 2009, this record-setting run has seen GDP grow a measly 25% total, far slower than all previous expansions. As is usually the case, the stock market sniffed out the end of the ’08-;09 recession early as they bottomed in March of 2009.
Interestingly, August is the only month of this record setting 10-year run that seen US stocks fall more often than they have risen. There is a plethora of reasons one can assign to why but since we usually don’t find out “why” until after the fact, it’s only the probabilities we need to pay attention to.
Even though there is only a slightly negative bias, the seasonality stats are telling us better months are ahead but more importantly our patience and investment fortitude may be tested in the short term.