Will JP Morgan Lead Banking Stocks Lower?
The chart of JPM below mirrors that of the banking sector ETF, XLF. A tremendous rally off of the Trump election, enough to create a very overbought condition closing out 2016. Since that point, it attempted to rally after a small pullback and actually reached new yearly highs in March. But on that push, negative momentum was formed and the stock has been grinding lower ever since. As you can see JPM has gone nowhere (dead money) for the past 6 months and has formed a bearish head and shoulders reversal pattern. If the pattern were to play out its target is labeled T1 on the chart some 12% below today’s close. T2 is a support level of significance if T1 does not stick and the market continues to sells off.
As investors in any region of the world, we always want to see banking stocks in healthy up-trends, making higher highs. While JPM’s price is still above a rising 200 day moving average, it formed a new intermediate term lower high and lower low warning of a potential trend reversal. Any play out of the bearish head and shoulders pattern would make huge dent in the bullish case for banking stocks.
As goes JPM, so goes the banking sector.
It’s important to know that head and shoulders patterns which are over-hyped up by the financial media’s lack of understanding of technical analysis and constant need for headlines. When these patterns do actually play out they are a thing of beauty and can be quite profitable for those short. But the fact is these pattern either don’t materialize or fail the majority of the time. Why? its because historically stocks have spent 70-80% of the time either moving sideways or higher and this pattern is a marker for stocks moving down. Back to JPM, from a purely mathematical standpoint we have higher statistical probabilities a decline will NOT materialize. Nevertheless whenever these patterns develop they should not be ignored as they are a warning sign and we need to be concerned just in case it turns out to be one of those 20-30% possibilities.